Sevilla vs Alaves prediction: 1X2, Over/Under probabilities & scorers (AI)

La Liga

Sevilla - Alaves si gioca venerdì 6 novembre alle 21:00, La Liga.

Di Redazione GoalCast AI · 2 novembre 2026 alle ore 21:25

Sevilla - Alaves: la card del pronostico AI

In matchday 12 of La Liga, Sevilla host a struggling Alaves side that has lost 4 of their last 5 games. The market favours the home side and the quality gap is real, although recent head-to-head records show Alaves are capable of competing. A Sevilla win in a low-scoring match is expected, as suggested by the Under 2.5 market priced at 1.68.

Key factors

Sevilla 6th in the table with 17 points, superior squad value (71M€ vs 45M€) and a favourable home advantage
Alaves in crisis: 4 defeats in their last 5 matches, with poor attacking output especially away from home
Under 2.5 at 1.68: bookmakers are expecting a tight, low-scoring affair
Recent head-to-head meetings have been balanced (1-1, 1-2, 1-0), but Sevilla are more solid at home
Boyé (5 goals in 8 appearances) and Toni Martínez (14 goals this season) are Alaves's main threats, but Sevilla defend better at home

AI predictions by market

Full-time result (1X2)

Prediction: 1 — model confidence: 62%

Sevilla are market favourites (1.96) and benefit from home advantage in La Liga, where the home side historically wins 48% of matches. Despite the defeat at Getafe in their last outing, Sevilla have a superior squad value (71M€ vs 45M€) and Alaves arrive with 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Double chance

Prediction: 1X — model confidence: 75%

Sevilla should not lose at home against an out-of-form Alaves. The 1X double chance covers the risk of a defensive draw, which always remains a possibility in this kind of fixture.

Under/Over 1.5

Prediction: Over — model confidence: 88%

No signs of a very low-scoring game: both sides have recent history of scoring (Sevilla have scored in 4 of their last 5), and the 1.5 threshold is virtually a given in an attacking context like La Liga (average 2.76 goals per match).

Suggested combos

1X + Under 2.5 — 48%
1 + Under 2.5 — 37%
1X + NG — 42%
1 + NG — 33%

Likely goalscorers

Toni Martínez — 30%
R. Vargas — 28%
Peque Fernández — 22%
L. Boyé — 32%

Social buzz

Rising over the last 24 hours following Sevilla's defeat to Getafe; home supporters are calling for a reaction

The buzz is mainly concentrated on Spanish news sites, fan blogs (JaviSFC, ElSevillista, Futeros) and fantasy forums. No viral trend has been detected on TikTok or Instagram. Sevilla's sentiment is slightly negative due to the Getafe loss and numerous absences; Alavés's sentiment is neutral-to-positive. The match is considered crucial for Sevilla to avoid losing further ground on the top positions before the international break.

Isaac Romero, Sevilla's top scorer, is a doubt for the match after leaving the field in the 26th minute against Getafe following a heavy knock to his knee. The medical staff are working to reduce the inflammation.
Manu Bueno is suspended following Sevilla's fourth sending-off of the season (straight red at Getafe), forcing García Plaza to reshuffle his starting eleven against Alavés.
The return of Quique Sánchez Flores and Mariano Díaz to the Sánchez-Pizjuán wearing Alavés colours adds an emotional edge to the match, with Sevilla fans torn between nostalgia and a desire for payback.

Upcoming matches

Sevilla - Real Betis — Sun, Nov 22, 05:00 PM (La Liga)
Alaves - Deportivo La Coruna — Sun, Nov 22, 05:00 PM (La Liga)
Real Sociedad - Sevilla — Sun, Nov 29, 05:00 PM (La Liga)
Real Madrid - Alaves — Sun, Nov 29, 05:00 PM (La Liga)

Standings

#		Pt	PG
1	Barcelona	30	11
2	Atletico Madrid	28	11
3	Real Madrid	27	11
4	Real Betis	23	11
5	Real Sociedad	19	11
6	Sevilla	17	11
7	Athletic Club	15	10
8	Deportivo La Coruna	14	11
9	Villarreal	12	11
10	Celta Vigo	12	11
11	Alaves	12	11

Teams

Competition

La Liga

All predictions for 6 novembre 2026

All predictions for 6 novembre 2026

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