Newcastle-Everton 0-1: match report and AI prediction check

Premier League

Newcastle - Everton, giocata lunedì 2 novembre in Premier League.

Di Redazione GoalCast AI · 29 ottobre 2026 alle ore 21:25

Newcastle - Everton: la card della sintesi

St. James' Park expected a reaction after Thursday's Carabao Cup defeat, but Matthias Jaissle's Newcastle disappointed their supporters once again, losing 0-1 to Everton in the ninth round of the Premier League. This is the second consecutive home defeat for the Magpies in just days against the same opposition, and the crowd's boos at full-time speak volumes about the mood at Tyneside. Earlier in the week, the German coach had promised a response on the pitch after the cup debacle, but the promise proved empty.

The match was decided early in the second half: at 49° Tyrique George fired at goal following Dewsbury-Hall's through ball, Horníček failed to hold the ball and Thierno Barry tapped in from two yards out. VAR intervened at the 51st minute to check the validity of the goal, confirming it without reservation. This is the fourth Premier League goal for the young French striker, eighth across all competitions this season: a return that is sparking discussion at international level too. Newcastle then claimed a possible equaliser with Elanga striking the post with an open goal following a Harvey Barnes cross, which proved to be the evening's great missed opportunity.

Read the full match report

What the model predicted

Ninth Premier League matchday at St. James' Park: Newcastle (8th, 11 pts) host Everton (11th, 10 pts) in a mid-table derby that looks balanced on paper but with the Magpies as clear favourites. Newcastle's superior squad depth, home advantage and Everton's attacking drought in their last two outings all point towards a home win. The GG market priced at 1.56 signals an expectation of goals at both ends, backed up by prolific recent H2H meetings.

Key factors

Newcastle favoured at home with a squad value roughly €140M higher than Everton's
Recent H2H heavily one-sided: Newcastle won 4-1 away in November 2025 and came from behind to lose 2-3 in February 2026
Everton have failed to score in their last two matches (0-2 vs Arsenal, 0-2 vs Chelsea), with Branthwaite reported absent through concussion in the latest news
W. Osula in superb form with 7 goals this season, including a strike in the last outing vs Crystal Palace
Both sides are back in Premier League action within 4-5 days: partial rotation possible, but no concrete signs of squad management so far

AI predictions by market

Double chance

Prediction: 1X — model confidence: 72%

Newcastle are home favourites but Everton have caused upsets in recent months (the league's away win rate sits around 30%); the 1X double chance covers the draw risk while keeping the home perspective. Both clubs have their next fixture within 4-5 days but there are no signs of wholesale rotation.

Under/Over 2.5

Prediction: Over — model confidence: 62%

The Premier League averages 2.78 goals per game and 55% of matches go Over 2.5; the Over priced at 1.70 reflects a goal-friendly market expectation. Everton have conceded two 0-2 defeats recently, but the H2H record (2-3, 1-4) and Newcastle's attacking form (Osula with 7 goals this season) both point towards Over.

Under/Over 1.5

Prediction: Over — model confidence: 82%

The two league meetings between these sides this season produced a combined 10 goals. The GG price at 1.56 and Over 2.5 at 1.70 reflect a market expecting an open, high-scoring contest.

Both teams to score (GG/NG)

Prediction: GG — model confidence: 65%

GG is the clear market favourite at 1.56, and the Premier League BTTS rate sits at 55%. Everton have scored in 3 of their last 5 matches and Newcastle have conceded goals in almost every recent outing.

Suggested combos

1 + Over 2.5 — 36%
1X + GG — 48%
Over 2.5 + GG — 52%
1 + GG — 37%

Likely goalscorers

W. Osula — 38%
B. Touré — 25%
T. Barry — 28%
C. Nørgaard — 22%

Social buzz

The buzz is amplified by the double fixture within five days (Carabao Cup + PL), which is concentrating the attention of both sets of supporters

The buzz around the 2 November PL match on its own is at a low-to-medium level, but it is boosted by the back-to-back fixture with the Carabao Cup on 29/10. Most traceable online discussion centres on the cup tie and the impact of injuries on the probable line-ups. No viral hashtags dedicated to the PL fixture have been found, nor any confirmed trends on TikTok or Instagram (platforms not indexed by this search). Sentiment data and confidence percentages are inferred from predictive model probabilities and textual discussions, not from real mention counts.

Grealish and Branthwaite are doubts for the PL match: their fitness after the Carabao Cup on 29/10 will be monitored right up to kick-off
Lewis Miley and Fernandez-Pardo are considered doubts for Newcastle: if both miss the game, the Magpies' midfield will be stretched thin
On NUFC forums there are whispers that manager Jaissle could rotate heavily after the Carabao Cup, resting key players ahead of the PL fixture

Upcoming matches

Everton - Coventry — Fri, Nov 6, 09:00 PM (Premier League)
Fulham - Newcastle — Sat, Nov 7, 04:00 PM (Premier League)
Newcastle - Arsenal — Sat, Nov 21, 06:30 PM (Premier League)
Brentford - Everton — Mon, Nov 23, 09:00 PM (Premier League)

Standings

#		Pt	PG
1	Arsenal	24	9
2	Manchester City	21	9
3	Brighton	19	9
4	Chelsea	16	9
5	Liverpool	15	9
6	Brentford	14	9
7	Everton	13	9
8	Bournemouth	12	9
9	Tottenham	12	9
10	Aston Villa	12	9
13	Newcastle	11	9

Teams

Competition

Premier League

All predictions for 2 novembre 2026

All predictions for 2 novembre 2026

Predictions Premier League

Follow the match live: score, lineups and stats

AI-generated analysis for informational and entertainment purposes only: it is not betting advice and no outcome is guaranteed. Content intended for adults (18+). Please gamble responsibly.